VOLPREM
INITIALIZING
Bearspray AI · Kalshi Signal Intelligence

Realized vs Expected Vol
across — Prediction Markets

A binary contract must release all its remaining uncertainty before it resolves. VOLPREM measures how fast each Kalshi market is actually moving against the pace its deadline implies — and flags the ones running hot or sitting coiled.

Median R
—
realized ÷ expected
Hot Mkts
—
R ≥ 2
Coiled Mkts
—
R ≤ 0.25
Hottest R
—
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⚠ Failed to load market data. Showing cached/demo data.
Vol Ratio Rankings ● LIVE R = RV ÷ EV
Scanning markets…
# Market R Δ7D Trend DTE Vol 24h Signal
Unlock Full Rankings

See all 40 markets ranked by vol ratio. Catch the hot and coiled markets before the move.

$199/month
or $1,799/year · cancel anytime
40 markets API key Daily digest Alerts
Top Signal Now STRONGEST R
Hottest Market
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Most Coiled Market
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R Distribution ALL MARKETS
Methodology
01
Expected vol (EV). A binary contract ends at 0 or 1, so its remaining variance is exactly p(1−p). Released evenly to resolution, the expected variance over Δt is p(1−p)·Δt/τ, where τ is time left.
02
Realized vol (RV). Sum of squared 30-minute price changes over 24h, corrected for 1¢ bid/ask bounce using first-order autocovariance.
03
R = RV ÷ EV. HOT (R ≥ 2): moving faster than its deadline justifies, usually news-driven. COILED (R ≤ 0.25, with ≥3¢/day expected): uncertainty still to be released before resolution.
04
Δ7D is the price change over 7 days in percentage points. Fewer than 12 observations is flagged LOW DATA. Sports pre-game markets read coiled by construction: their uncertainty resolves during the game.
API Reference
FREE TIER AVAILABLE Top 5 markets · No auth required
GET https://api.volprem.io/v1/signals

Returns vol-ratio rankings for active Kalshi prediction markets, strongest signals first. Free tier returns the top 5. Authenticated requests return the full 40-market dataset.

Query Parameters
x-api-keyHeader. Subscriber key; unlocks all 40 markets
vol_ratioR = realized ÷ expected variance (24h)
signalhot | coiled | neutral | low-data
Get full API access Unlimited calls · 40 markets · webhook alerts
Example Response 
// GET /v1/signals?limit=2
{
  "updated_at": "2026-02-28T23:41:00Z",
  "market_count": 87,
  "median_vol_ratio": —,
  "signals": [
    {
      "ticker": "—",
      "title": "—",
      "volRatio": —,
      "realizedVol": —,
      "expectedVol": —,
      "momentum": —,
      "signal": "—",
      "dteDays": —,
      "confidence": "—"
    },
    {
      "ticker": "—",
      "volRatio": —,
      "signal": "—"
    }
  ],
  "free_tier": true,
  "truncated": true
}